Well! - Leading Economists support my view of the Euro.
A bit of self praise never hurt anyone. I mean it's not like I'm getting carried away or anything, but I can take a modicum of praise here for being the first to 'advise' the Greek Government to dump the Euro, and now, after a week has gone by, The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) is saying the same thing.
So the sensible thing to do of course would be for Greece, Spain and Portugal, and possibly Italy, to create another currency for markets built not on industry but on tourism. e.g. Like the Lira, Peseta and Escudo for instance.....like they already had before they were 'conned' into accepting a single currency. It would make sense to do this of course before the entire economy of Europe collapses under the weight of debt which cannot be repaid without an industrial base and plenty of customers, or a restoration of tourist trade. But when the rest of Europe is NOT making its citizens more wealthy for reason their jobs, educations and services are taken up - by foreigners -, and there's a rather sizeable cost incurred for that along with the 20 million illegal immigrants in Europe, then something has to give quite quickly if the EU single currency is not to fail entirely.
“Leaving the euro would mean the new currency will fall by a minimum of 15%. But as the national debt is valued in euros, this would raise the debt from its current level of 120% of GDP to 140% overnight. “So part of the package of leaving the euro must be to convert the debt into the new domestic currency unilaterally.”
They also said:
called the move “virtually inevitable” and said other members may follow. “The only question is the timing,” he said. “The other issue is the extent of contagion. Spain would probably be forced to follow suit, and probably Portugal and Italy, though the Italian debt position is less serious. “Could this be the last weekend of the single currency? Quite possibly, yes.”
You see, some things just can't be avoided and simple mathematical answers is one of them.
If Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal's economies were placed into a maths question which asked the chance of survival, then the answer would be = ZERO to the ratio of point 0.00001% probability without a tourist trade and without any manufacturing base.
The next question then would be 'how do they meet their basic needs as a people and the answer would be 'they don't' unless they make their own money, sell it, gain investment, make it cheap to visit Athens, the Costa's and Rome, and stop bringing in a load of people from Africa who are looking for the same jobs Greeks are looking for.
Thus, the only question remaining unanswered, is WHEN not IF, the Eurozone will be BUST by the debt these countries have no way to avoid inside the Eurozone, or when France and Germany will be saddled with Euro debt if and when those 'PIIGY' countries decide to leave.
Incidentally, one should ask themselves, if the advice of the CEBR is followed, and Greece does "leave the euro and default on its €300 billion (£255 billion) debt." Then who picks that bill up if it isn't France and Germany and what would be the knock on effect to their economies if they were stubborn enough to keep the Euro themselves?
The answer is simple:
1. Britain is not a member of their daft money system so we are okay except for the £28billion worthless Euro reserves Brown exchanged in place of our gold, but other than that it won't be us who's paying.
2. France and Germany would then either stick with a devalued Euro or together be known as the new Weimer republic of 'Germfranco Collapso'.
Who is brave enough to bet the Euro will last another 5 years?
If you are brave enough then can you tell me HOW the Euro can survive?
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